Inflation Softer Than Expected in March

Inflation in the U.S. actually declined at the headline level last month and the core rate barely rose, possibly reigniting debate about whether the Federal Reserve would resume trimming rates at its next meeting in May.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in March. Economists had expected a 0.1% increase, following February’s 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI increased just 2.4% compared to forecasts of 2.6% and February’s 2.8%.

Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed only 0.1% in March against forecasts 0.3% and February’s 0.2% reading. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, well shy of expectations for 3% and and February’s 3.1%.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) rose modestly to above $82,000 in the minutes following the news. After yesterday’s historic move higher, U.S. stock index futures are under pressure on Thursday morning, the Nasdaq 100 -2.7% and S&P 500 2.1%.

Thursday morning’s CPI report, of course, contains data from prior to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” sweeping tariff announcements last week that sent market into a multi-day panic, a portion of which was recovered yesterday following the president’s 90-day pause.

Prior to the tariff pause and market recovery, traders had been busily pricing in a rate cut to come at the Fed’s next meeting in May. Just prior to the CPI data, though, those odds had been whittled back to just 17%. For now, June is looking like the action meeting, with a 75% chance of 25 basis points or more of rate cuts by the end of that event.

Looking ahead, attention turns to Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which may further shape expectations for Fed policy in May.