Stock Market Breaks Records, but History Suggests This Is a Bear Market Rally

The Nasdaq closed 12% higher on Wednesday, marking its second-largest gain in history, following President Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of tariffs for 90 days. Strategy (MSTR), one of the fastest-recovering stocks and a component of the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) ETF, surged 25%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 climbed nearly 10%, recording its third-largest single-day gain—surpassed only by two days in 2008.

While this may seem bullish on the surface, it’s worth noting that the Nasdaq’s three biggest rallies occurred in 2001 and 2008—both during recessions and followed by new lows. Similarly, the S&P 500’s two larger green days were also during the 2008 financial crisis. Investors should be aware of bear market rallies.

There’s growing speculation about why Trump backed off on tariffs. Globally, rising bond yields were rattling markets. According to FOX Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino, the pressure in the bond market may have stemmed from Japan selling bonds—not China, as many had assumed.

As the market rallied, the VIX (Volatility Index) closed at 34, registering the largest one-day percentage drop in its history, surpassing the 2010 record.

Bitcoin (BTC) also saw a spike, briefly rallying above $82,000. However, it remains within the downward channel it has followed since January.