Why Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Remains Bullish as Bitcoin Nears Record Price

The investment firm of famed tech investor Cathie Wood remains bullish on Bitcoin as its price has climbed back near its recently established all-time high of $111,814. 

Aggregate unrealized profit levels, Bitcoin ETF flows, and key support levels converging are among “bullish” indicators for the top crypto asset, according to ARK Invest’s monthly Bitcoin report for May. 

“Bitcoin has not hit irrational exuberance,” reads one of the report’s key takeaways. 

One notable sign that Bitcoin hype has not reached the level of mania, according to ARK, is the level of Bitcoin’s aggregate unrealized profits, or the profit and loss measurement compared to the on-chain cost basis of an asset.

Using data from Glassnode, ARK points out that Bitcoin’s aggregate unrealized profits are currently only one standard deviation above the mean this cycle. In past cycles, “the PnL needs to hit three standard deviations to suggest irrational exuberance,” the report reads. 

The report also points to the uptick in Bitcoin ETF flows, particularly comparing them to that of global gold ETFs, which decreased from $9.2 billion to around $1.5 billion in May. Bitcoin exchange traded products on the other hand jumped more than 120% from $2.5 billion to $5.5 billion, the report notes. 

Last but not least, as its price has risen, Bitcoin has pulled up key support levels to between $94,000-$97,000, eclipsing its 200-day moving average, on-chain mean, and short-term holder cost basis in the process. 

But while the firm’s research largely points to bullish indicators, the monthly report also highlights declining transaction volumes and a 10-year low for Bitcoin core development commits as bearish indicators. 

“At 704, commits to Bitcoin Core Github repositories have dropped nearly 10-fold since 2021 and have hit their lowest level since 2013,” the report reads. “The decline underscores Bitcoin’s increasing role as a fixed monetary asset on a dynamic development platform.” 

The top crypto asset’s recent performance arrives amid other neutral and bearish macro conditions, highlighted by the surge in home sellers when compared to buyers in the United States—a mark that ARK views as bearish for the overall market. The report also highlights the rising supply costs and falling auto sales as neutral market signals.

Mixed near-term signals, though, are unlikely to faze Wood and ARK, which have previously provided wildly bullish predictions on the eventual price of Bitcoin. In 2024, Wood said Bitcoin could hit $1 million per coin, eating into the global demand for gold—a theme once more noted in its May report.

The firm provided an even more bullish prediction earlier this year, suggesting that by 2030, Bitcoin could hit $2.4 million per coin. That’s based on its experimental modeling, which considers “active supply,” or the amount of tokens in circulation that are not long-held or lost. 

The firm’s bear case in that modeling gives Bitcoin a $500,000 price tag in 2030—still a nearly 5x multiple on the current price. Bitcoin is up 0.7% in the last 24 hours to $109,360, just 2% off its all-time high according to CoinGecko.

Edited by Andrew Hayward