Bitcoin Rebounds as Markets Price in ‘Short-Lived’ Iran Conflict

Bitcoin regained a footing late Sunday to trade above $101,000, recovering from earlier weekend losses as investors responded to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. 

The gains came alongside modest moves in gold and a muted reaction across oil and equity futures, signaling traders expect a contained conflict rather than a sustained geopolitical shock.

The U.S. operation, carried out in coordination with Israel, targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using more than 125 aircraft and bunker-buster munitions.

Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the Gulf. 

Iran’s foreign minister also flew to Moscow on Sunday for emergency consultations, while President Trump signaled a pause in further U.S. military action. 

A final decision on next steps could come within two weeks. In the meantime, European leaders have urged restraint and signaled openness to renewed diplomacy.

Despite the escalation, markets stabilized quickly. Gold briefly hit $3,398 before easing to $3,374, while oil pared an early surge to finish up just 0.5%.

“The market is still expecting a short-lived war,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, noting that oil remains far below levels historically associated with Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Crypto markets showed a similar posture. While Bitcoin initially sold off during the height of the weekend headlines, traders returned as risk appetite increased.

“We saw a lot of twitch trading in the hours after the US attacked Iranian nuclear targets, and right now trade volumes remain elevated,” Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, told Decrypt. “If we start to see a softening in tensions in the middle east, we should start to see a rebound in investor confidence, and the price should start to grind back up.”

“Nobody, including Trump, knows what is going to happen next in the Middle East, and that just creates the kind of uncertainty that traders hate,” he added. “Bitcoin is an emerging asset class, so it’s not unreasonable after the events we saw on Sunday for the market to de-risk. But it does serve as a reminder that crypto is an emerging market and volatility is still part of its nature.”