BTC Bounces After War-Driven Dip, Eyes $98.2K as Key Bull Market Line

The short-term holder realized price (STH RP) for bitcoin

currently sits at $98,200, representing the average on-chain acquisition price for bitcoin {BTC} held outside of exchange reserves and moved within the last 155 days.

This metric, derived using on-chain heuristics, helps distinguish between short and long-term holders and provides insight into market sentiment, according to Glassnode data.

Realized price refers to the average acquisition price for the entire circulating bitcoin supply, based on the last time each coin moved on-chain. STH RP narrows this down to more recently active coins, which are statistically more likely to be spent. These are often the most sensitive to market volatility.

Over the weekend, bitcoin dipped amid geopolitical tensions, driven by escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and growing fears of escalation between U.S. and Iran. With traditional markets closed, investors responded by selling liquid assets like bitcoin not necessarily out of desire, but necessity.

Historically, when bitcoin trades above the STH RP, it typically signals a bullish trend. Conversely, trading below the STH RP is often associated with bearish or consolidation phases.

For example, from June to October 2024, ahead of the U.S. presidential election, bitcoin remained below the STH RP which was around $62,000 at the time. Similarly, in February to April 2025, prices again fell under this threshold which was around $92,000.

Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, climbing back above $100,000 and now trading around $101,000. For bullish momentum to continue, it will be crucial for BTC to remain above the $98,200 STH RP level.